benarkah EPA Jepang Indonesia cukup menguntungkan? dimana posisi Indonesia dalam kerjasama ini? sedikit tulisan mengenai kondisi trade Indonesia Jepang (tulisan kecil ini bagian dari tulisan saya dalam sebuah jurnal di Jepang)

Although Indonesia-Japan trade increased, the export-import share was apt to decrease. After 1998, export value to Japan was around 15.99%-23.30% of export total value. This proportion was smaller than many periods before. The same condition happened in import proportion. After crisis in 1999, Indonesia import proportion from Japan was around 8.91%-16.10%. The condition showed that Japan was not the main destination and source of trade for Indonesia. The borderless trade and regional trade agreement encouraged Indonesia to open its trade broadly.

The structure of Indonesia-Japan bilateral trade was an exporter of primary commodities and importer of industrial, capital goods and machinery inputs. This condition did not always give some benefits to Indonesia due to characteristics of primary commodities were unpreserved, low price-low value added, and depend on season. On the contrary, machinery inputs usually have a higher price as result of technologies attached. The ten highest import products in 2005 were road vehicles (18.23%), iron and steel (13.08%), general industrial machinery (11.78%), machinery specialized for particular industries (10.46%), power generating machinery (9.22%), electric machinery (5.21%), metalworking machinery (4.57%), organic chemicals (4.02%), artificial resins and plastics materials (3.49%), manufactures of metal (3.26%) and others (16.68%)

Primary products like mining, forestry, and fish dominated Indonesian export to Japan. The disadvantages of primary product export were relatively cheap price, so the import value would be low, seasonal dependency for agricultural products, and continuity resources for mining-based products. The mining export commodities in 2005 were gas and natural manufactured (28.58%), petroleum and petroleum products (18.53%), metalliferous ores and metal scrub (10.59%), coal, cokes and briquettes (5.98%) and non-ferrous metals (2.51%). The agriculture export products were cork and woods (4.51%) and fish, crustaceans and mollusks (2.51%). The rest of ten highest export commodities were industrial outputs like electrics machinery, office machines and automatic data processing equipments and textiles yarn, fabrics and related products.

The robust export performance of manufacturing, combined with growth in manufacturing imports, confirmed that Indonesia tried to peruse an outward-oriented industrialization strategy helped by trade liberalization and strategic industry policy.

The linkage between the import of intermediate goods and changes in export structure supports argument that: (a) import of intermediate inputs and capital goods are the major determinant of the changes in the export structure; and (b) trade liberalization measures improve firms ability to import the technology and intermediate inputs needed to adapt to changing global demand patterns. Based on structure of Indonesia-Japan trade, Indonesia ought to develop manufactured export to Japan due to find a greater value added from international trade.